False Analogies of the Ukraine War

Viewing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as akin to the US invasion of Iraq lets the US off the hook

Several critics of US foreign policy a year ago were dismissing the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine. (Unlike warmongers, they have generally fessed up to their faulty analysis at least to a degree.)

This seemed off to me at the time and one reason I didn’t discount the possibility that Russia would actually invade was that it felt like Iraq and Kuwait in 1990 to me.

But many, including “realists” like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt have instead compared the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. That’s an absurd analogy. The invasion of Ukraine was, like the invasion of Kuwait, highly provoked, and indeed, Iraq and Russia may each have been baited into these invasions on their borders by the US establishment in different ways.

In vivid contrast, the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the US was completely unprovoked. It was the diabolical culmination of a long-planned scheme to frame Iraq to dominate a region on the other side of the planet, accomplished with torture, spying and massive lies throughout the US political and media systems. It used the 9/11 attacks as a pretext for long-planned aggression.

Now, the dynamics around Russia’s invasion are different in that while Iraq was given a false green light by the US government in the person of April Glaspie, the dynamics prior to the invasion were truly bizarre, with Biden calling it an “invasion” at least two days before it actually was one.

Biden and company were wagging their finger at Putin: Don’t you dare do it. All the while, they seemed to be hoping to whatever their higher being is that he would invade.

Indeed, threats regarding Nord Stream 2 were issued by the US government before the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion:

On Feb. 22, Biden said: “And because of Russia’s actions, we’ve worked with Germany to ensure Nord Stream 2 will not — as I promised — will not move forward.”

In the case of the invasion of Kuwait, in July of 1990, the AP reported: “Iraq Accuses Kuwait of Violating Border, Stealing Oil.” (July 18, 1990). Then, the New York Times noted on their front page on July 28, 1990, less than a week before the invasion:

Iraq has clearly threatened to use force against those who weaken the accord by overproducing—a threat mainly directed at the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which together have been exceeding their quotas by about a million barrels a day. And Saudi Arabia, by far the largest producer in OPEC, appears to be content to have Iraq play this role.

On August 3, 1990, the day after Iraq did invade, the Times ran an editorial ridiculously claiming: “Without warrant or warning, Iraq has struck brutally at tiny Kuwait, a brazen challenge to world law.”

In fact, while both the Iraqi and Russian invasions were violations of international law, they were both highly provoked. They both also arguably had other mitigating circumstances regarding the histories of the parties involved.